Russia and Ukraine agree large prisoner swap at Abu Dhabi talks

The Abu Dhabi talks between Russia and Ukraine ended with one agreement: a large-scale prisoner exchange, with numbers and timing still to be worked out. On the question that actually drives the war — who controls which land — the sides remain exactly where they started.

Alexander Zorin, first deputy head of Russia's military intelligence agency, said on state television that the aim was to exceed 1,000 people on each side, citing last year's exchange of that size as the benchmark. Vladimir Medinsky, Russia's chief negotiator, said mutual understanding had been reached on some issues and more talks would follow. A senior Ukrainian official confirmed the preliminary agreement.

The meeting was the first since February, when trilateral negotiations were paused after the US-Israeli war against Iran began. It is the exchange, not any movement toward settlement, that both sides need regardless of how the war goes — prisoners are an asset that loses value the longer they sit in custody, and handing them back costs neither side a metre of ground. Hours before the talks resumed, Ukraine destroyed the Russian Rubicon drone centre outside Berdiansk, a strike 107 kilometres behind the front — a reminder that battlefield pressure, not goodwill, sets the terms.

Washington ran the diplomacy bilaterally. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are expected in Moscow to meet Putin; the US team then travels onward to meet Zelenskyy, who is attending a summit with western leaders in Ireland. Kushner said progress had been made on security guarantees for Ukraine but that no deal could be signed until the territorial dispute is settled. On that dispute, nothing moved: Medinsky said every square of land would return to Russia one way or another, demanded Ukraine withdraw from territory it still holds, and wants Nato barred from new members and pushed out of its eastern flank. Kyiv calls the demands surrender.

European and Nato envoys were present in Abu Dhabi. Russia refused to meet them; they spoke only with the American and Ukrainian delegations. Medinsky, asked about European participation, said it was unclear what Russia and the EU had to discuss, and — per the Financial Times — that Russia would talk to European countries once their conscience awakens and they stop sending weapons. He added he had not heard a single specific peace proposal from any European country.

Medinsky also offered his diagnosis of the continent on state television: the security system built after the Second World War is failing, the whole body is sick, and Ukraine was merely a cyst that burst — a band-aid would not suffice. With the war now in its fifth year and Russia's army advancing more slowly than before, Kushner, Witkoff and their colleagues will carry that framing to Moscow, where Putin, according to Lavrov, still intends to achieve the goals he set when he launched the invasion.