Anthropic launches largest IPO in history at trillion-dollar valuation, prospectus and press releases disagree by 400 billion, seven founders cash a quarter-billion apiece while their own chip suppliers underwrite the deal

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Josh Schafer warns retail investors against buying the Anthropic IPO at its debut. Schafer highlights historical trends of large tech listings dropping 50% in their first year and notes intense competition from OpenAI. foxbusiness.com

Dario Amodei foxbusiness.com

Claude Anthropic's AI logo foxbusiness.com

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei foxbusiness.com

Anthropic has launched the largest initial public offering in history: 825 million shares priced between $70 and $78, trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT from November 19. At the top of the range the share sale raises $64.4 billion, and with a concurrent $26 billion private placement, the total capital raise rounds to roughly $100 billion — more than SpaceX's listing even after its greenshoe.

It nearly looked different. Five weeks ago the "fair value" being whispered for the biggest AI listing ever was $2 trillion; prospective investors then demanded a discount from $1.5 trillion. The amended S-1 filed this week carries that discount built in — but even the number itself now comes in two versions. Reuters and Bloomberg both put Anthropic's market value at about $1 trillion at $78 a share, and both also report that it is seeking $1.4 trillion. The gap is stock that is not trading yet: 1.77 billion employee options struck at an average of $2.91, plus over a billion unvested restricted stock units. The headline number counts shares that exist; the other counts shares that might. In this trade, apparently, both are right.

The private placement is its own arithmetic problem. The $26 billion comes from AMD, Broadcom, Google, Micron, Microsoft, Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor — the same companies that sell Anthropic its chips and, in several cases, were expected to buy its output. The circular financing that has marked the entire AI buildout now reappears on the cover of an SEC filing.

The founders are selling too. Each of the seven co-founders, CEO Dario Amodei included, is cashing out 3.38 million shares — about $264 million apiece at the top of the range, a rounding error next to stakes still worth roughly $14 billion each, but a quarter-billion-dollar payday on day one regardless. Late on Monday, Reuters reported a draft filing showing about 867 million shares at $70 to $80; the version that reached the SEC had 42 million fewer shares and a top end $2 lower. The deal shrank by about $5 billion between dinner and breakfast.

The financials behind the price: sales of $33.2 billion in the first nine months of the year, against $2.5 billion in the same period last year, with a $1.3 billion operating loss. The $104 billion net loss came from noncash accounting charges on financing arrangements. Operating cash flow was positive at $6.6 billion.

The offering prices on Wednesday night, November 19, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley alongside 20 other banks. When there is this much in fees, nobody stays home.