Iran warns of gas rationing as winter approaches

Iran may be forced to ration natural gas to major consumers this winter, First Vice President Mohammadreza Aref warned on Monday, as temperatures plunge and the government tries to keep the network stable for cold and remote regions. The warning comes from a country sitting on the world's second-largest gas reserves.

Aref's remarks, reported by Iran International, add an energy dimension to a political crisis that is deepening by the week. Over the weekend, lawmaker Hosseinalai Haji Deligani demanded parliament move forward with impeachment proceedings against the foreign minister and the agriculture minister over soaring food prices. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has drawn hardline criticism for his handling of negotiations with the United States. President Masoud Pezeshkian has now attached a condition to any return to talks: some US sanctions must be lifted first. "Threats and sanctions must be removed in practice to pave the way for dialogue," he wrote on X on October 21. "We cannot increase the intensity of sanctions every day, close the avenues of interaction, and at the same time talk about negotiations."

The economic backdrop is grim. The rial is plunging and inflation is squeezing ordinary households, while the country's refineries run below capacity and power cuts spread. US Central Command chief Adm. Brad Brad Cooper claimed earlier this month that Iran's financial troubles have become so severe that Tehran-backed militias are withholding soldiers' pay to funnel money to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — and that the IRGC itself is struggling to pay its troops. Iranian leaders insist the country can withstand years of hardship.

CNN reported on Monday that the Trump administration is weighing another round of military strikes against Tehran after the midterm elections. Pezeshkian, according to ZeroHedge, may be hoping for a diplomatic opening resembling the recent US-Russia track, where Trump has eased certain economic pressures while pursuing direct talks with Vladimir Putin. Washington has so far shown no interest in easing anything before talks — the precondition Tehran now demands.

The gas network that Aref wants to protect is the same one that exports to Iraq, Turkey and Pakistan when it works. An exporter that cannot heat its own cities in winter has little leverage left to sell.