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More than a million Lula supporters pack Copacabana on eve of Brazil runoff

80-year-old incumbent lost first round 47-45 to Flávio Bolsonaro, no first-round loser has won presidency since democracy returned in the 1980s

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was cheered by a huge crowd on Copacabana beach on Saturday amid hopes he can secure an historic fourth term. Photograph: Agustín Marcarian/Reuters Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was cheered by a huge crowd on Copacabana beach on Saturday amid hopes he can secure an historic fourth term. Photograph: Agustín Marcarian/Reuters theguardian.com
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva waves to supporters on Saturday. Photograph: Dhavid Normando/AP Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva waves to supporters on Saturday. Photograph: Dhavid Normando/AP theguardian.com
People watch a televised debate between Flávio Bolsonaro and his election rival on Friday. Photograph: Adriano Machado/Reuters People watch a televised debate between Flávio Bolsonaro and his election rival on Friday. Photograph: Adriano Machado/Reuters theguardian.com
Lula supporters on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Photograph: Agustín Marcarian/Reuters Lula supporters on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Photograph: Agustín Marcarian/Reuters theguardian.com
Some Lula supporters believe he can overturn the lead his rival secured in the first round of voting. Photograph: Agustín Marcarian/Reuters Some Lula supporters believe he can overturn the lead his rival secured in the first round of voting. Photograph: Agustín Marcarian/Reuters theguardian.com

More than a million supporters of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva packed Rio de Janeiro's Copacabana beach on Saturday, the eve of Brazil's presidential runoff. City Hall put the crowd at about 1.1 million along the 2.5-mile beach, and an even larger rally followed on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo — one of the final campaign rallies of Lula's 50-year political career.

Nearly 159 million Brazilians are due to vote on Sunday, choosing between Lula, the 80-year-old incumbent first elected in 2002, and Flávio Bolsonaro, far-right son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who took the first round on 4 October by 47 percent to 45. The two are tied in the polls. Most analysts make the younger Bolsonaro, who has sold himself as an iron-fisted answer to chronic violent crime, the slight favourite.

Lula has climbed in the final days, helped by a run of scandals around his rival. Last week the magazine Piauí reported that at the height of Brazil's 2020 coronavirus outbreak, Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists hoping to strike a deal with the government of his father, president from 2019 to 2022. Student-led street protests have swept the country since Lula's first-round defeat, and the Copacabana crowd unfurled an enormous yellow-and-green banner: "WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!"

Marta Moraes, a 59-year-old restaurateur, said the election was not left against right: "We've nothing against the right... what we're against is Bolsonarismo." She lost four members of her family during the pandemic. Josias Silva, a 61-year-old truck driver, said "the people have woken up" and that "young people know we need this victory because otherwise we will have dictatorship again." He predicted victory "with more than 60 percent of the votes" and called the rally "the biggest protest in the history of Brazil."

The polls point to a narrower margin than Silva's. The historical record is plainer still: since Brazil's return to democracy in the 1980s, no candidate who lost the first round has gone on to win the presidency.