Texas data center boom threatens two decades of clean air gains

At least 288 data center projects are planned across Texas, according to a Texas Tribune analysis, and a report released this week by the Houston Advanced Research Center models what they could do to the state's air. If the facilities power themselves with on-site natural gas, statewide nitrogen oxide emissions could rise nearly 400% by 2031. Even in the cleaner scenario — grid connection with on-site wind and solar — the report projects a 35% rise.

Between 2002 and 2024, Texas sharply cut its major air pollutants from transportation, industry and power generation, while its population grew by millions and its economy roughly doubled. Nitrogen oxides damage the human respiratory system under long-term exposure, causing chronic lung disease. Depending on how the new facilities are powered, the report's modeling runs from a marginal increase in emissions to a reversal of that record.

Historically, connecting to the Texas grid has been the default way for a data center to get its power. That route now comes with a queue: ERCOT, the grid operator, received more than 500 requests over the last two years to connect large electricity users — many of them data centers — against two dozen in the year before, according to state records from this summer cited by Truthout. Proposed projects range from five to 11,000 megawatts of planned capacity. A single Meta development in El Paso, valued at $10 billion, occupies roughly 1,000 acres.

Cooling compounds the problem. Servers overheat without it, and the most water-efficient cooling technologies are precisely the ones that consume the most electricity — a trade that worsens as AI chips run hotter and demand more cooling, and therefore more energy. The report's authors argue the sector should be treated like any other heavy industry. "We need to treat data centers as the industrial facilities they are … to hold them accountable to the same industrial and power generation emissions standards that produced Texas progress," said Carlos Gamarra, vice president for energy, air and IT at HARC. The researchers add that the worst outcome is still avoidable, through grid connection, renewables and regulation.

Two decades of emissions cuts stand behind the projections. In front of them stands a connection queue whose large projects add up to 439 gigawatts of estimated demand — roughly a third of all the power generation in the United States.