Mohamad Bazzi: US protection turns out to be priced per transaction

A Houthi cruise missile struck Riyadh's international airport on 10 October, killing at least 13 people and wounding more than 300. Asked whether he would now be more willing to order US strikes against the Yemeni militia, Donald Trump answered: 'We may. We're going to look at it.' For Mohamad Bazzi, that non-answer is the relationship in miniature.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Bazzi writes in the Guardian, cultivated Trump and Jared Kushner carefully: billions of dollars in American weapons, a defence cooperation agreement sealed in Washington, a deal for dozens of F-35 stealth fighters, and a pledge made days after Trump's return to the White House to expand investment and trade by $600bn over four years — later raised to nearly $1tn, close to the kingdom's entire annual GDP. Billions in Saudi money have also flowed into Kushner's private equity firm and the Trump Organization. What the purchases did not buy was protection. Trump's war against Iran rekindled the kingdom's conflict with the Iran-aligned Houthis; the prince called Trump multiple times in September urging US airstrikes and was resisted, even as Iranian attacks decimated some US bases in the region over the past seven months. Trump's constraints are domestic: the conflict has pushed up petrol and energy prices and driven US inflation to 3.7 percent in September, weeks before midterm elections, with a Maga base that believed his promises not to start new wars.

The market has already repriced the risk. Riyadh's airport has remained closed amid near-daily Houthi missile attacks that Saudi air defences appear unable to detect, according to ZeroHedge; strikes since 6 October have killed at least 20 people and injured almost 400. The EU-Gulf summit set for 24 October in Riyadh, with all 27 EU leaders due to attend, was postponed with no new date. A tennis exhibition featuring Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz was pushed to late December, the World Rally Championship round was cancelled outright and moved to Sardinia, the Red Sea film festival slipped to 2027, and the Esports World Cup has already relocated to Paris. The sovereign wealth fund is preparing to drop five proposed stadiums from the 2034 World Cup plans, Semafor reports.

A defence relationship priced in weapons orders and family investments, Bazzi argues, is a subscription rather than a treaty — and this month the provider is declining to deliver, because his own balance sheet comes first.

Formula One has told Imola to prepare for a race on 6 December in case the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is cancelled, and will cover the costs even if the race never takes place.