IMF puts Bangladesh ahead of India in per capita GDP for 2026

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, published on 13 October, estimates Bangladesh's per capita GDP at $2,886 for 2026, against India's $2,749 at current prices. The fund's April edition had India back in front from 2027 and holding the lead until at least 2031; October's data pushes that recovery back to 2029.

The lead has been changing hands for years. By April's figures, Bangladesh was ahead in 2023 and 2024, with India marginally in front in 2025 at $2,670 against $2,635. The October outlook now gives Bangladesh $3,219 to India's $3,036 for 2027, and a marginal lead again in 2028. Between editions, both countries' 2026 estimates were cut — India's by $63, Bangladesh's by $25. The margins are small; the direction of the revision is not.

Per capita GDP divides a country's output across its population — the measure closest to what an economy delivers to a person. On that measure, both countries sit at barely more than a third of the emerging-market average of about $7,746, and under a quarter of the global average of $15,889. Aggregate growth rates make the headlines; this is the number that has to show up in incomes.

India's aggregate growth has not been wanting for coverage. Reporting by Scroll this month showed state-run NTPC's coal import orders going to Adani Enterprises and a company linked to the same circle, on margins guaranteed above world market prices — adding 71 paise to the consumer price of every unit of electricity. Growth routed through favoured conglomerates registers in the aggregate figures. The per-person ledger is where the arithmetic lands.

When India does retake the lead, in 2029, the fund puts it at $3,661 against Bangladesh's $3,334 — both still less than half the emerging-market average.