Rejecting Rosebank and Jackdaw could cost UK almost 11 billion pounds, Adura-commissioned study projects 3330 fewer jobs a year, replacement LNG imports carry three times the emissions of domestic gas

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Rejecting the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields in the North Sea would cost the UK economy £10.8 billion over the next decade and 3,330 jobs a year, according to research commissioned by Adura, the company behind both projects. The government is still weighing whether to approve them; the previous Conservative administration had cleared the fields before Labour's 2024 election manifesto promised a ban on new drilling.

The Public First analysis puts the value of approving Rosebank and other planned fields at £35.3 billion in UK economic output between 2026 and 2035; without them, the figure falls to £24.5 billion. More than half the jobs Adura supports are estimated to be in Scotland, and consenting to both fields would add £4.1 billion to tax revenues over the decade. Adura chief executive Neil McCulloch said the report "puts a clear price on leaving viable North Sea resources in the ground."

The report's argument turns on substitution rather than sentiment. Demand for oil and gas is expected to remain high for decades, it says, and the UK will meet it either from domestic production or from imports — and imported liquefied natural gas carries an emissions impact more than three times higher than domestic production. Recent geopolitical turmoil, the report adds, has underlined the importance of secure and affordable energy for households and businesses.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has vowed a "pragmatic" approach to North Sea drilling, and reports suggest the government is poised to approve the Jackdaw gas field, with a decision also due on Rosebank, the largest untapped oil field in the North Sea, lying 80 miles north-west of Shetland. Environmental campaigners fiercely oppose both projects; Fossil Free London protested outside the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero on Tuesday.

Jackdaw lies 150 miles east of Aberdeen; the gas that replaces it would arrive by tanker, with three times the emissions and none of the tax receipts.