Merz says Ukraine EU entry date slips beyond 2028

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told students in North Rhine-Westphalia on Monday that Ukraine’s proposed EU accession date of 1 January 2027 is “not realistic,” according to Reuters reporting carried by Euronews. Merz added that even 2028 would likely be too soon, and sketched a pathway in which a ceasefire and peace treaty could leave parts of Ukraine no longer under Kyiv’s control.

Merz’s most pointed suggestion was procedural: he said questions of territorial concessions and EU membership could be decided in parallel referendums in Ukraine. Roughly a fifth of Ukrainian territory is under Russian occupation, and the territorial issue remains the central bargaining chip in US-brokered talks, with Moscow pressing Kyiv to cede the remaining areas of Donbas it does not control and lobbying Washington to treat occupied regions as de facto Russian. Zelenskyy has rejected both ideas, arguing that formalising gains from invasion would turn future borders into prizes.

The comments land in an EU that is simultaneously promising money and hesitating on membership. Last week, EU leaders in Cyprus approved a €90bn loan package for Ukraine and a new sanctions round after Hungary lifted its veto, a reversal tied to the resumption of Russian oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline. That sequence—cash unlocked when oil resumes—has made enlargement talk harder to separate from the member states’ immediate costs. Full accession would mean not just symbolism but voting rights, budget transfers, and agricultural and labour-market integration on a scale the Union has never absorbed during an active war.

In Cyprus, Zelenskyy publicly pushed back against what he called “symbolic membership,” insisting Ukraine wants the same full status as existing members. The European Commission has praised Kyiv’s reform efforts but has avoided a date, with Ursula von der Leyen warning against “artificial deadlines” and stressing that accession is a “two-way contract” requiring deep legal and administrative changes. Merz floated an alternative that has never been tried: EU “observer status,” allowing participation in institutions without voting rights—an arrangement that would offer Brussels a way to signal inclusion while keeping the fiscal and political liabilities off the balance sheet.

Merz also used the student event to criticise US strategy in the Iran conflict, reflecting a broader European habit of treating Washington’s crisis management as something to be insured against rather than followed. For capitals trying to fund Ukraine, deter Russia, and stabilise energy routes at the same time, the appeal of half-steps is that they can be announced quickly and priced later.

Merz did not name a timetable for any observer-status model. He did say Ukraine’s EU entry will not happen in 2027, and likely not in 2028 either.