Rumen Radev leads Bulgaria exit polls

Bulgaria’s eighth parliamentary election in five years is set to produce another government that needs partners before it can govern.

Exit polls cited by Euronews late Sunday put former president Rumen Radev’s new centre-left coalition, Progressive Bulgaria, in first place with roughly 37–39% of the vote, far ahead of Boyko Borissov’s conservative GERB on about 16%. Turnout was reported above 45%, high by the standards of a country where repeated snap elections have trained voters to expect another round. Even with a clear lead, Radev is projected to fall short of a majority by around 10–12 seats, making coalition-building unavoidable.

The problem is arithmetic colliding with vetoes. Progressive Bulgaria has already ruled out governing with GERB and with the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), whose leadership Radev has publicly branded “oligarchs”, narrowing the field before negotiations even begin. Relations have also deteriorated with We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria, a pro‑reform bloc that has previously cooperated with Radev-aligned forces but now sits outside his declared red lines. That leaves two plausible reservoirs of votes: the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the nationalist Revival party, which Euronews describes as strongly anti‑EU and pro‑Russian.

Radev’s foreign-policy record is part of what makes the coalition maths so charged. During his presidency he repeatedly opposed sending military aid to Ukraine and argued that deeper involvement risked dragging Bulgaria into the war. In the campaign, opponents seized on a stage video that included footage of his meeting with Vladimir Putin, and on his renewed defence of his earlier statement that “Crimea is Russian”, which he framed as a “realistic position”, according to Euronews.

Bulgaria’s domestic deadlock has become a European concern because it sits at the intersection of EU external policy, sanctions enforcement and Black Sea security, while also remaining vulnerable to corruption scandals and patronage networks that have outlasted multiple cabinets. A coalition that leans on Revival could harden disputes with Brussels over Ukraine policy and institutional reforms; a coalition that excludes it may simply not exist on paper. Either way, the incentives are clear: smaller parties can demand ministries and policy concessions in exchange for stability, while the cost of another collapse is spread across voters who have little direct leverage between elections.

Radev’s supporters are likely to read the result as a mandate to break with the Borissov era; his opponents will point out that the mandate still needs votes in the chamber.

On Sunday night, Bulgaria had a winner in the exit polls and no governing majority in sight.