Trump orders UFO file releases
Polymarket traders price alien disclosure as event risk, state secrecy becomes tradable volatility
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President Donald Trump says he has ordered federal agencies to begin “identifying and releasing” government files related to “alien and extraterrestrial life,” as well as unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), turning a long-running secrecy ecosystem into a tradable asset.
According to Business Insider, Trump announced the directive in a Truth Social post and framed it partly as damage control for former president Barack Obama, accusing Obama of discussing classified material after a joking exchange on a podcast. Obama later clarified publicly that there was no evidence during his presidency that aliens had made contact.
The political substance of Trump’s promise is thin—“begin the process” is not a schedule, and “releasing files” is not the same as declassifying the parts that matter. But the incentive structure is suddenly very concrete. On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, traders have poured millions into markets on whether the US will confirm extraterrestrial life before 2027 and whether a Trump administration will declassify UFO files before 2027, Business Insider reports. Odds on declassification have reportedly traded above 80% at points.
This is what happens when the state monopolizes information and then periodically teases “transparency” as a performance: it creates an arbitrage opportunity. A handful of insiders—people with better intuition about bureaucratic behavior, better access to leaks, or simply more tolerance for regulatory ambiguity—can price political theater faster than the public can read a PDF.
Official secrecy doesn’t just conceal facts; it manufactures markets. The same government that insists classification is necessary for national security also creates the informational scarcity that lets speculators treat press conferences like earnings calls.
And the public gets the worst of both worlds. If the files are mundane, the episode becomes a distraction machine that converts legitimate questions about surveillance, procurement, and defense accountability into late-night entertainment. If the files contain something meaningful, the incentive will be to drip-feed it through agencies skilled at redaction, delay, and narrative management.
Either way, the state keeps its core advantage—control of timing—while private traders monetize the rumor cycle. “Disclosure” may be less a civic act than a liquidity event.