UK reportedly blocks US use of Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford for Iran strikes, Trump sets 10-day decision window as oil prices jump, special relationship becomes a basing-permission problem

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Britain’s “special relationship” is once again being stress-tested by something more concrete than speeches: basing permission.

The Evening Standard reports that the UK government is refusing to allow President Donald Trump to use RAF bases—specifically RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire—and the joint UK-US base on Diego Garcia for potential strikes on Iran. The Times, cited by the Standard, links the reported refusal to Trump’s sudden public attack on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Chagos Islands deal, under which sovereignty would be transferred to Mauritius while the UK and US lease back Diego Garcia.

Trump, in remarks carried by NBC News, said the outcome of talks with Iran could come within “the next 10 days,” framing a narrow decision window as Washington continues its regional military buildup. Markets are treating the window as real: the Standard’s business desk notes Brent crude rising to around $71.71 a barrel from $69.62 the previous day, lifting BP and Shell even as broader equities fell.

The Standard says the UK’s position is driven by concern over exposure under international law: providing support “with knowledge of the circumstances of the internationally wrongful act” can create liability, and UK bases can only be used for operations with prior UK consent and compliance with UK law and its interpretation of international obligations.

Trump’s own messaging makes the transactional nature explicit. On Truth Social, he warned that if Iran does not make a deal, the US “may” need Diego Garcia and the Fairford airfield to “eradicate” a potential threat—an attack he claimed could be directed at the UK and other friendly countries. He then pivoted into culture-war scolding: “DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!”

The alliance is reduced to its operational core: the US can surge carriers and aircraft into the region, but certain strike options still route through a handful of runways and legal signatures in London. “Deterrence” is a logistics graph with veto nodes.

For the UK, the episode is awkward: it wants to support US pressure on Iran’s nuclear program (Downing Street reiterated that Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon) while not becoming a co-defendant in a future legal argument about unlawful force. For Trump, it’s a demonstration that the UK’s overseas territories and basing rights—sold domestically as administrative tidying—remain strategic leverage.

And for everyone else, oil prices serve as the only honest communique: a risk premium that updates faster than any diplomatic readout.